Salvation Army: State of the Nation

Congratulations to Alan Johnson and Major Campbell Roberts for their recent report on the state of the Nation. They are clearly on the right track in terms of asking the questions about social outcomes rather than just economic ones. I like the basic assumption that underlying this teams report which are questions of morality. I’m glad to see a Christian leader identifying social issues as issues of morality (rather than the usual sexual behaviour issues). In particular he asks “what priority have we given to families and to the poor?” The report focuses on five areas
1. the position of our children,
2. crime and the punishment of criminals,
3. the working lives of New Zealanders,
4. social hazards
5. housing.

In reading a report like this I wonder first of all whether it has been peer reviewed. Statistics can be so misleading and this can be the case even with the best of intentions if care is not taken for example to ensure that apples are compared with apples. Government departments often change the way they report things and comparing for example CYF referrals from 5 years ago to today may not give a true picture of increased social need. It may indicate more thorough reporting, or an increased response to an already existing but unmet need. I wonder whether such a misreading of the data has lead to unfair conclusions such as “ This trend for increasing levels of child abuse and neglect is reflected in the increasing numbers of children in CYFS care.” The two factors are not necessarily related as this statement supposes.

My curiosity was aroused by the comments about teenage pregnancy. Firstly there seems to be some moral issue presumed with young women 16-19 falling pregnant. What is the problem? Are these young women too immature to be good mothers? Women of this age especially with the support of capable Grandparents often make great mothers. Perhaps the problem is that they are assumed not be married – well that’s another issue. Or perhaps we are assuming that these young mums have missed out on other opportunities (education and career) by falling pregnant – maybe so but we are in danger of undervaluing motherhood something I’m sure Major Roberts wouldn’t want to do.

The comments around early childhood education facilities raises a real concern about equality of access. I’d like to see some more analysis of this as I’m sure that other issue are relevant here. For example the working and parenting / grand-parenting patterns of Pacifica peoples. Is it a matter of not enough centres or is it a matter of public perception of the value of ECE?

The pass rates for NCEA points to some real positive outcomes including a closing of the academic achievement gap between rich and poor communities. There is obviously more to do, the question is more of the same or something different. I suspect that if things are improving under the current system its best to go for more of the same, with adjustments being made (such as the new curriculum) when indicated by good research.

I’m disappointed with the heading for the Crime and Punishment section. I think it would be far better to look at crime and restoration. The punitive justice system is failing us, all the evidence points to that. The report is right to point out “The consequences of this more punitive stance in our criminal justice are however far more apparent and can be seen in recent increases in the nation’s prison population and in our rate of imprisonment.” We must ask “What are we doing not just to prevent crime but to prevent the formation of criminals in society and in jails?” A 36% increase in our prison population over the last five years is alarming and feels very American! A big factor here is the numbers in remand brought about by a slow and over worked judicial system.

The report does show small decreases in reported crime although an increase in violent crime. Is the increase in violent crime an increase in reporting as ‘domestic violence' is more socially unacceptable? Some may argue that the decrease in ‘dishonesty offences’ may be due to a lack of faith in the system to do anything about minor offences; this can be countered by the increased number of cases solved and brought to prosecution by the police.

It will be interesting to watch the data change on social risks (drinking, drugs and gambling) as the S A continue to write annual reports. There was little of interest in this year’s report, not much in the way on conclusions.

The report shows good improvement in work force rates with just modest growth in real wages. GDP has increase 17% over 5 year with real wages increasing 5%. I think the report missed a real opportunity here to talk about the effect of low wages and the inequality and disparities between for example share holders and labourers of the same companies. The reports points to the difficulties of living on a benefit, but acknowledges that fewer people are living on a benefit now and that the number of children’s living on the benefit has dropped significantly, but there is still a long way to go.

The data on housing affordability offers no surprise and no solutions either. Many people are feeling the pinch here. Partly is an issue of globalisation and opening our housing market to international speculators and partly the increase in property prices is due to the kiwi investors fixation with property investments; which actually offers low returns in terms of rental and therefore is a market of speculation. One flow on affect is the poor quality of rental stock and the low level of maintenance carried out by landlords who cannot get the rental returns relative to their investment and or interest payments.

It will be interesting to watch the developments in the housing market with gurus predicting an ongoing slump in prices, and the government proposing building more affordable housing.

Overall the report is worth a read. 8/10 for identifying the issues. 5/10 for analysis of interpretation of the data.
I’d like to see a government response to report, but they may prefer that it drifted quietly into oblivion.